Blogosphere Vs. Analysts Round 2

I see that Michael Gartenberg, CEO of Jupiter Research (link to his post here), took issue with my post Lotsa Kool Aid which suggested that the " The bloggers of 2005- 2010 are the research analysts of the 1990s."

Says Gartenberg:

"Heh... You're kidding Michael, right? No one, least of all us, would diminish the role of the blogger in the 21st Century but to call them the new research analysts is about as accurate as those that insist bloggers will replace mainstream press....bloggers can help you generate buzz if you're starting out but if you think that's a replacement for data driven research and analysis, you're totally off base."

The Stalwart (as usual, right on the mark) comes to my defense with this post:

"We don't know (or care) to what extent blogs will pose a threat to the likes of Jupiter Research analysts, though his suggestions that blogs are good for mere "buzz" seems a little off the mark.

The real issue, for places like Jupiter, is how much of a monopoly they can maintain on "data driven research and analysis". At the moment, the biggest advantages a place like Jupiter (or Gartner) has, over mere bloggers, are the barriers to entry associated with the costs of full-time employees who can collect and crunch data.

Despite the fact that they employ "analysts", the real value-added from these firms comes from their data (e.g. marketshare info for handset shipments in Q3 '05. When you need that kind of info, it's best to find a Gartner report). The actual insights and opinions of the individual analysts (at places like Jupiter, or even on Wall St.) is somewhat secondary.

And as for the data collection, that's becoming easier too. New techniques of scanning the internet to collect sales information and prices are popping up. The idea of paying employees to call around to collect data may one day seem quaint. Then were does that leave the Jupiters and Gartners? Not sure exactly, but the sanguine outlook might be somewhat naive."

heh...ask any of today's 20-something or 30-something entrepreneurs any of the following questions and tell me the answer.
1. Would you prefer an audience with Om Malik or Jupiter prior to launching in order validate your product, service or message.
2. On the internet, does it really matter what analysts say? The users show the way. They use the content in ways many entrepreneurs did not predict and have helped markets that analysts have given up for done explode (read GOOGLE)
3. Would you pay Jupiter or Gartner $20K for market data or would you use Google to find it instead? In fact, freely accessible and re-postable data and analysis is becoming more powerful and influential since it travels the internet at light speed while much work done by analysts is behind a $20K firewall.

Now, you might say that this is well and good for the internet space but telecom and software is a different story. Let's look at the financial world. Since the beginning of time, stock research was assumed to be an expert function at well-known Wall Street firms (investment banks etc.) and wall street publications such as Valueline and others. Now, sites like SeekingAlpha have empowered the blogosphere and turned them into research analysts. If you think the quant data gathered by analyst firms is an unassailable competitive advantage, check out this link on SeekingAlpha. Savvy entrepreneurs will find the necessary data out there and someone will package it up and make it available to corporate America.

Why won't this happen across other industries? The internet has democratized expertise! In an era of zero-cost publishing, someone's opinion matters because he knows what he is talking about and not because he has the imprimatur of a research organization. These experts are in the blogosphere or are publishing independently in some other form.

Heh...Gartner probably thinks there is a 0.4 chance of all this happening :)