3+ Conclusions From the Israeli Election Roundup

1. The Right and Netanyahu clearly won this election

Even though the Likud will finish in a tie or one Knesset seat behind Kadima, the Right has won a clear majority. The radical left represented by Meretz and parts of the Labor party was decimated. The hard core Right gained strength. Netanyahu can form a right wing government or, if he can convince Livni to subjugate her ego, he can form a broad government with Kadima, Yisrael Beteinu, Shas and Bayit Yehudi. I think it is also not-unlikely that Ehud Barak, at age 67 and facing a revolt from within his Labor party, could peel off and join Netanyahu in a government as Minister of Defense. He may bring a couple of others with him.  I think  it is also useful to point out that had there been direct election of the Prime Minister, Netanyahu would have won by a safe margin. In my opinion, he was clearly the most worthy candidate.

2. The election system is completely broken. Completely!

This sounds like a broken record but the horse trading Netanyahu will likely go through to form this government will exact a huge price and likely lead us back to elections soon. This is very unfortuante. One advantage to forming a broad government with Kadima and Yisrael Beteinu is it might give us a chance for the electoral reforms we so desperately need. An even more historical move would be to set aside Right/Left peace issues since they are irrelevant now and build a Likud/Kadima/Labor government that will guarantee four years in government and let Israel build itself. Netanyahu will need a broad coalition to tackle the huge issues facing the country including Iran, Hamas, The economic meltdown and the new Obama administration.

3. The electorate is still disillusioned

Despite the joyous reaction over "high" voter turnout, we should recall that it was "high" compared to the last election and not by historical standards. Beyond that, Livni managed to drag out a lot of voters who were panicked that Lieberman and Yisrael Beteinu were gathering strength.  There is no clear leader to rally behind in Israel. The electorate is not excited and is searching for leadership and a clear platform. 

A few mini items:

This election saw a few important firsts:

1. 31 NEW Knesset members. This is very welcome. For too long, politics has been a career in this country from student unions to the Knesset. Politics should be public service and people should go in, serve the people and get out after 4-10 years. The 31 new Knesset members are a breath of fresh air.

2. The internet was the most important media battleground in this election. The left wing media is generally harsh on Netanyahu and he skirted it by using the internet and email effectively. However, the internet did not reach the level of influence that it did in the US Presidential election.

3. I cannot figure out how the Haredi parties stay around 5-6 seats despite the fact that their percentage in the general population keeps rising.

4. The Bayit Hayehudi/Ichud leumi split did not finish off both parties, although they both limped into the knesset instead of riding in as a big unified party.